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Saturday, September 22, 2007

"Above Normal" Hurricane Forecast is in a Race Against the Clock

...and the clock is winning.

With more than 62% of the Atlantic hurricane season behind us and less than 38% of it left, it's now a race against the clock for the 2007 hurricane season to be "above normal," as forecast. The clock is winning and the score is 4 to 3.

So far this season, there have been just three Atlantic basin hurricanes. By September 22, there are normally four hurricanes.

The season has been below normal more or less the entire season, with the first hurricane of the year (Dean) arriving two days later than typical.

On May 22, NOAA had predicted seven to nine Atlantic hurricanes, one to three above normal. On August 9, NOAA not only reiterated this forecast, but said "the outlook calls for an even higher probability of an above-normal season than was predicted in May."

While there's still time for this year's Atlantic hurricane season to be above normal, more than the clock is ticking. We've already begun a rather steep descent from the peak of hurricane season - which normally falls around September 10. The number of hurricanes per hundred years on that day is better than 50. The number of hurricanes per hundred years has already dropped to the low-to-mid 30s.

So just to recap: To meet even the lowest number in NOAA's forecast range (seven hurricanes), there must be an additional four hurricanes this season. This will require 33% more hurricanes in the last 38% of the season than there were in the first 62% of the season. And they'll have to occur after the peak of the season.

The more moderate hurricane season so far this year is welcome news to everyone.

Everyone, that is, but global warming alarmists who exploit the hurricanes - and hurricane victims - to advance their big government agenda.
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Posted by Amy Ridenour at 11:55 PM

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