Europe's Airbus "Megaplane"
Fails to Earn Green Stripes
by Ryan Balis
All eyes in Europe
this week are on the maiden flight of the long-anticipated, double-decker
Airbus A380 super jumbo jet, which took place April 27 at Toulouse-Blagnac
International Airport in southwest France.
Though a boon to
Europe's airline industry, the over 800-seat "green giant"
raises deep environmental issues of importance on both sides
of the Atlantic.1
After all, when
President Bush asserted that the costs of complying with the
Kyoto Protocol on global climate change would hurt the United
States,2 a fury erupted.3 European leaders in particular scorned
the President,4 charging that America was refusing
to reduce gas emissions to combat the still unproven theory of
global warming.5
President Bush,
however, does not stand alone. His position follows an overwhelming
95-0 vote in the U.S. Senate, which has the constitutional duty
of ratifying international treaties such as Kyoto.6 Senators noted that the treaty lacks
emission controls for rapidly expanding economies such as China
and India.7
But considering
much greenish tilt and shock over American excess in Europe,
it was ironic to see nearly 5,000 guests - including four European
political leaders - cheer January's lavish rollout of the Airbus'
A380 super jumbo jet in southern France.8
"When we look
at this monument of human achievement, we see that Europe can't
be stopped,"9
boasted Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero to
the crowd.
The massive jet
- a German, French, British, and Spanish collaboration apparently
subsidized by billions of European government loans10 - is set to become the world's largest
passenger jet when it enters commercial service, expected in
mid-2006.11
The "megaplane"
reflects Airbus' business strategy to connect travelers between
large flight hubs such as London and Los Angeles.12
Airbus13 and its backers promote the A380 as
one of the most environmentally-friendly and cost-efficient aircraft
in the world.14 They claim it will halve noise and
improve fuel efficiency by 15 to 20 percent over Boeing's 30-year-old
747.15 The reasoning is that by carrying
more passengers farther on less fuel per passenger, the environment
wins.
But a look at Airbus'
performance statistics casts doubt on this logic.
Airbus steadfastly
insists that, despite the jet's oversized frame (it measures
845 square meters and weighs roughly 280 tons when empty),16 the expected fuel consumption is 2.9
liters of fuel per passenger per 100 km. traveled.17 These measurements are based on flying
555 passengers with no luggage or cargo at a cruising speed of
900 km.18
But with air carriers
selling an average of roughly 70 percent of available seats,19 supporters of the A380 may have difficulty
explaining how increasing the number of jets in the sky is good
for the environment.
Jean-Marc Jancovici,
a French scientist, calculates that if Airbus' business projections
are met,20 "the number of air passengers
will triple in the next 20 years."21
He thus points out that meeting passenger demand with "super-sized"
jets would cancel out gains made to fuel efficiency.22
It is also reasonable
to figure that per-passenger fuel consumption will vary widely
depending on the number of passengers, cargo and distance traveled.
Long-distance flights with a full passenger load would increase
per capita fuel efficiency.23
(Proportionally, a greater amount of fuel is consumed during
take-off and landing than during cruising.24)
Such worries have
yet to carry much weight. Having a European creation topple the
venerable American 747 is a source of great pride for many European
Union leaders.25
Although Airbus
became the world's largest commercial airline producer in 2003,26 rival Boeing has chosen a different
track: To build a new generation of smaller, lightweight and
fuel-efficient jets.
Boeing's 787 Dreamliner
is the brainchild for this strategy. Set to be unveiled in 2008,
it will allow passengers to fly directly between many of the
world's largest cities on 20 percent less fuel than on a comparable
aircraft.27
To a degree, the
airline makers' opposite approach is simply the latest skirmish
in the decades-old transatlantic air war. But any claim of a
European "moral advantage" on environmental concerns
is suspect.
The behemoth Airbus
A380 has yet to earn its green stripes.
# # #
Ryan Balis is a policy analyst at the National Center for Public
Policy Research. Comments may be sent to rbalis@nationalcenter.org.
Footnotes:
1. At maximum capacity,
industry analysts believe the A380's dual-decks can hold 840
passengers in a single class configuration (555 people in two
classes) - over a third more seating than a typical Boeing 747-400
carries.
See "Airbus
A380 Overview," Aircraft-Info.net, available at http://www.aircraft-info.net/aircraft/jet_aircraft/airbus/A380/
as of March 22, 2005; "Largest Passenger Jet Unveiled,"
CNN.com, January 18, 2005, available at http://www.cnn.com/2005/BUSINESS/01/18/airbus.380/
as of March 22, 2005.
The Boeing 747-400
seats 416 passengers in a typical three-class arrangement but
can hold a maximum of 524 in two classes. Boeing does not publish
passenger configurations for a single class. See Boeing Co.,
"747 Technical Specifications," Boeing Technical Specifications,
available at http://www.boeing.com/commercial/747family/technical.html
as of March 22, 2005.
"Green giant"
from Airbus Co., "A380 Family," Airbus Media Centre
Library, available at http://www.airbus.com/product/a380_backgrounder.asp
as of March 22, 2005.
2. Christopher C.
Horner and Iain Murray, "Why the United States Should Remove
Its Signature from the Kyoto Protocol," CEI Monthly Planet,
Oct. 1, 2004, available at http://www.cei.org/pdf/4254.pdf as
of March 22, 2005.
3. Steven Martinovich,
"Enforcing the Kyoto Protocol," Washington Times, Nov.
24, 2004, available at http://www.washtimes.com/op-ed/20041123-080536-6648r.htm
as of March 22, 2005; Edmund L. Andrews, "Frustrated Europeans
Set to Battle U.S. on Climate," New York Times, July 16,
2001, pg. A3.
The Economist writes:
"So when Europeans search for a common foreign policy, they
naturally apply the principles of multilateralism... Hence their
almost hysterical reaction to Mr. Bush's rejection of Kyoto."
See "Wanted: New Rules of the Road," Economist (UK),
June 9, 2001.
4. The BBC wrote:
"There has been widespread European outrage at Mr Bush's
decision to turn his back on the Kyoto agreements aimed at ending
global warming." See "Blair Urged to Tackle Bush over
Kyoto, BBC (UK), April, 13 2001, available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/1275244.stm
as of March 22, 2005.
See also: Toby Harnden,
"US Rejects Global Warming Pact," Daily Telegraph (UK),
March 29, 2001, available at http://www.millennium-debate.org/tel29mrch3.htm
as of March 22, 2005.
5. James K. Glassman
and Sallie L. Baliunas, "Bush Is Right on Global Warming;
...Not that Reporters Would Understand," The Weekely Standard,
June 25, 2001, pg. 26.
See also Oregon
Institute of Science and Medicine, "'Petition Project on
Global Warming," available at http://zwr.oism.org/pproject/
as of March 22, 2005.
6. Senate Resolution
98, United States Senate, 105th Congress, 1st Session, July 25,
1997, available at http://www.nationalcenter.org/KyotoSenate.html
as of March 22, 2005.
7. Charli E. Coon,
"Why President Bush Is Right to Abandon the Kyoto Protocol,"
Heritage Foundation Backgrounder #1437, May 11, 2001, available
at http://www.heritage.org/Research/EnergyandEnvironment/loader.cfm?url=/commonspot/security/getfile.cfm&PageID=8763
as of March 22, 2005.
8. Erika Lorentzsen,
"Airbus Unveils the Massive A380," Washington Post,
Jan. 19, 2005, pg. E2, available at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A19497-2005Jan18.html
as of March 22, 2005; "Largest Passenger Jet Unveiled,"
CNN.com, January 18, 2005, available at http://www.cnn.com/2005/BUSINESS/01/18/airbus.380/
as of March 22, 2005; "Airbus Shows Off New 'Superjumbo'
A380," Associated Press (ABC News), Jan. 18, 2005, available
at http://abcnews.go.com/Business/print?id=420752 as of March
22, 2005.
9. Erika Lorentzsen,
"Airbus Unveils the Massive A380," Washington Post,
Jan. 19, 2005, pg. E2, available at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A19497-2005Jan18.html
as of March 22, 2005.
10. Newsweek reports:
"The U.S. Special Trade Representative says Airbus has received
$15 billion in 'launch' subsidies for its planes. Total subsidies
are hard to determine because they take many different forms."
See Robert J. Samuelson, "No Free Launch," Dec. 13,
2004, available at http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6652967/site/newsweek/
as of March 22, 2005.
The subsidy issue
is now the subject of an US-EU trade dispute currently being
negotiated by each side's trade representatives. See "Boeing
Profit Down Sharply," Washington Post, Feb. 3, 2005, pg.
E2; Noelle Knox, "A380 Makes Massive Debut," USA Today,
Jan. 24, 2005, available at http://www.usatoday.com/money/biztravel/2005-01-16-a380-usat_x.htm
as of March 22, 2005.
11. Erika Lorentzsen,
"Airbus Unveils the Massive A380," Washington Post,
Jan. 19, 2005, pg. E2, available at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A19497-2005Jan18.html
as of March 22, 2005.
12. Jorn Madslien,
"Airbus to Unveil Giant A380 Plane," BBC News, Jan.
17, 2005, available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4174729.stm
as of March 22, 2005; "Airbus Shows Off New 'Superjumbo'
A380," Associated Press (ABC News), Jan. 18, 2005, available
at http://abcnews.go.com/Business/print?id=420752 as of March
22, 2005.
"Megaplane"
taken from "Sara Kehaulani Goo, "Airbus Hopes Big Plane
Will Take Off, Beat Boeing," Washington Post, Dec. 19, 2004,
pg. A1, available at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A9900-2004Dec18.html
as of March 22, 2005.
13. An Airbus press
release states: "The A380 will carry more passengers further
allowing for growing passenger numbers and helping to ease an
increasingly congested environment . . . . the A380 provides
the smartest and most economical solution to growing air traffic
and airport congestion." See Airbus Co., "A380 Double
Deck Family-Flagship of the 21st Century," Airbus Media
Centre Library, June 2004, available at http://www.airbus.com/media/a380_family.asp
as of March 22, 2005.
See also Airbus
Co., "A New Way to Fly Gives Airlines a New Way to Make
Profits," Airbus Media Centre Library, available at http://www.airbus.com/product/a380_economics.asp
as of March 22, 2005; Airbus Co., "The A380: the Largest,
Most Advanced and Efficient Commercial Airliner Ever Conceived,"
Airbus Media Centre Library, available at http://www.airbus.com/product/a380_backgrounder.asp
as of March 22, 2005; "Collaboration: Pan-European Collaboration
Delivers a Futuristic Double-Decker Airliner," The Manufacturing
Alliance, Jan. 31, 2005, available at http://www.themanufacturer.com/uk/detail.html?contents_id=5239
as of March 22, 2005.
14. Chew Choon Seng,
Singapore Airlines' chief executive, said: "We'll be replacing
older large aircraft with a more modern, cost-efficient, environmentally
friendly aircraft, compliant with the most stringent noise and
emissions regulations." See Erika Lorentzsen, "Airbus
Unveils the Massive A380," Washington Post, Jan. 19, 2005,
pg. E2, available at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A19497-2005Jan18.html
as of March 22, 2005.
Sheikh Ahmed bin
Saee Al Maktoum, chairman of Emirates, praised the A380: "It
provides lower seat-mile costs and carries more passengers futher
and consumes less fuel than its competitors." See Airbus
Shows Off New 'Superjumbo' A380," Associated Press (ABC
News), Jan. 18, 2005, available at http://abcnews.go.com/Business/print?id=420752
as of March 22, 2005.
15. Airbus Co.,
"A380 Double Deck Family-Flagship of the 21st Century,"
Airbus Media Centre Library, June 2004, available at http://www.airbus.com/media/a380_family.asp
as of March 22, 2005.
The first Boeing
747 entered commercial service in 1970. See Boeing Co., "The
Boeing 747 Family - The Right Choice for the Large Airplane Market,"
Background Information, available at http://www.boeing.com/commercial/747family/background.html
as of March 22, 2005.
16. The Spiegel
Online, a German publication, reports: "At the end of 2003,
internal documents from the development department obtained by
DER SPIEGEL showed that the operating weight of an empty A380
was 290 tons -- 14 tons more than originally planned . . . .
Since then, the Airbus people have succeeded in trimming some
of the baby fat. 'We've gotten the weight down to just five tons
over the planned value,' says Lufthansa's [representative Joachim]
Schneider." See Gerald Traufetter and Ulrich Jaeger, "The
A380 Unveiled: Waiting for Take Off," Spiegel Online (Germany),
January 18, 2005, available at http://service.spiegel.de/cache/international/0,1518,337279,00.html
as of March 22, 2005.
17. Stefan Lovgren,
"Airbus Unveils A380 'Superjumbo' Jet," National Geographic
News, Jan. 18, 2005, available at http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/01/0118_050118_airbus.html
as of March 22, 2005.
Fuel consumption
figures also reported in Gerald Traufetter and Ulrich Jaeger,
"The A380 Unveiled: Waiting for Take Off," Spiegel
Online (Germany), January 18, 2005, available at http://service.spiegel.de/cache/international/0,1518,337279,00.html
as of March 22, 2005.
18. Document provided
to the National Center by Airbus upon request for direct operating
costs of a 555-seated Airbus A380-800. A representative at Airbus
confirmed the test parameters by phone.
Cruising speed taken
from Stefan Lovgren, "Airbus Unveils A380 'Superjumbo' Jet,"
National Geographic News, Jan. 18, 2005, available at http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/01/0118_050118_airbus.html
as of March 22, 2005.
19. Bill Brubaker,
"Flyi to Cut Fleet of Jets, Workforce," Washington
Post, Feb. 23, 2005, pg. E1, available at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A45702-2005Feb22.html
as of March 22, 2005.
In 2002, a team
of Yale researchers found that the average passenger capacity
filled, or 'load factor', for 15 domestic and international carriers
to be 73 percent. See Brad Anen, et al., "Domestic Airlines
Initiation of Coverage 'Cash and Burn...'" Report of the
Yale School of Management, September 23, 2002, available at http://www.google.com/url?sa=U&start=6&q=http://www.som.yale.edu/AnalystReports/dyn/download.php%3Freportid%3D197&e=9732
as of March 22, 2005.
20. Industry analysts
estimate that for the A380 to break even, Airbus will need to
sell between 250 and 325 planes, and airliners must sell 323
seats per each flight. See Michael Hennigan, "Launch of
Airbus A380 May Doom the Boeing 747, An Icon of American Technology
for A Generation," Finfacts Ireland Business and Finance,
March 9, 2005, available at http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_1000163.shtml
as of March 22, 2005; Peter Pae, "Supersplash for Airbus
'Cruise Ship in Sky,'" Los Angeles Times, Jan. 18, 2005,
available at http://www.chicagotribune.com/chi-0501180279jan18,1,853638.story?coll=chi-site-nav&ctrack=1&cset=true
as of March 22, 2005.
21. Quote found
in "Airbus Success Will Help Drive Global Warming, Says
Expert," AFP (France), Jan. 18, 2005, available at http://science.news.designerz.com/airbus-success-will-help-drive-global-warming-says-expert.html?d20050118
as of March 22, 2005.
22. "Airbus
Success Will Help Drive Global Warming, Says Expert," AFP
(France), Jan. 18, 2005, available at http://science.news.designerz.com/airbus-success-will-help-drive-global-warming-says-expert.html?d20050118
as of March 22, 2005.
23. The A380 has
a maximum flight range of 15,000 km and a maximum fuel capacity
of 310,000 liters of kerosene (see Airbus, "A380 Double
Deck Family," and Stefan Lovgren, "Airbus Unveils").
Based on these assumptions, a quick calculation shows the per
passenger fuel consumption to be 310,000 liters/(15,000 km x
555 passengers) = 0.037 liters. But if only 300 passengers fly,
per capita fuel consumption jumps to 310,000 liters/(15,000 km
x 300) = 0.068 liters.
A similar type of
demonstration was performed by Jean-Marc Jancovici, "Should
We Encourage the Growth of Air Trafic [sic]?," Manicore.com
(France), Aug. 2004, available at http://www.manicore.com/anglais/documentation_a/airport.html
as of March 22, 2005.
24. Jean-Marc Jancovici,
"Should We Encourage the Growth of Air Trafic [sic]?,"
Manicore.com (France), Aug. 2004, available at http://www.manicore.com/anglais/documentation_a/airport.html
as of March 22, 2005.
25. Writes Robert
J. Samuelson: "Created in 1970, Airbus reflects Europe's
ambitions and pride . . . .But there's another truth: Europe
has an industrial policy to put Boeing out of commercial jet
business. 'We will give Airbus the means to win the battle against
Boeing,' former French prime minister Lionel Jospin once said."
See Robert J. Samuelson, "No Free Launch," Dec. 13,
2004, available at http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6652967/site/newsweek/
as of March 22, 2005.
See also Sara Kehaulani
Goo, "Airbus Hopes Big Plane Will Take Off, Beat Boeing,"
Washington Post, Dec. 19, 2004, pg. A1, available at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A9900-2004Dec18.html
as of March 22, 2005.
26. "Boeing
said yesterday it delivered 285 planes last year [2004]... That
was up from 281 deliveries in 2003. Airbus delivered 320 planes
last year, up 5 percent from 2003." See "Airbus Beats
Boeing for Second Year in Row on Jetliner Deliveries," Seattle
Post-Intelligencer, Jan. 6, 2005, available at http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/206729_boeing06.html
as of March 22, 2005.
27. Noelle Knox,
"A380 Makes Massive Debut," USA Today, Jan. 24, 2005,
available at http://www.usatoday.com/money/biztravel/2005-01-16-a380-usat_x.htm
as of March 22, 2005; Boeing Co., "Boeing 787 Dreamliner,"
Boeing Background Information, available at http://www.boeing.com/commercial/7e7/programfacts.html
as of March 22, 2005.
