Dr. Paul Ehrlich is a Stanford University biologist and author
of the best-selling book The Population Bomb. Since the release
of this book in 1968, Ehrlich has been one of the most frequently
cited "experts" on environmental issues by the media,
despite the fact that his predictions on the fate of the planet,
more often than not, have been wrong. In The Population Bomb,
Ehrlich predicted that hundreds of millions of people would die
of starvation during the 1970s because the earth's inhabitants
would multiply at a faster rate than world's ability to supply
food. Six years later, in The End of Affluence, a book he co-authored
with his wife Anne, Ehrlich increased his death toll estimate
suggesting that a billion or more could die from starvation by
the mid-1980s. By 1985, Ehrlich predicted, the world would enter
a genuine era of scarcity. Ehrlich's predicted famines never materialized.
Indeed, the death toll from famines steadily declined over the
twenty-five year period. Though world population has grown by
more 50% since 1968, food production has grown at an even faster
rate due to technological advances.
Perhaps Ehrlich's best known blunder is a 1980 bet he made with
University of Maryland economist Julian Simon. Dr. Simon, who
believes that human ingenuity holds the answers to population
growth problems, asserted that if Ehrlich were correct and the
world truly was heading toward an era of scarcity, then the price
of various commodities would rise over time. Simon predicted that
prices would fall instead and challenged Ehrlich to pick any commodity
and any future date to illustrate his point. Ehrlich accepted
the challenge: In October 1980, he purchased $1,000 worth of five
metals ($200 each) -- tin, tungsten, copper, nickel and chrome.
Ehrlich bet that if the combined value of all five metals he purchased
was higher in 1990, Simon would have to pay him the difference.
If the prices turned out to be lower, Ehrlich would pay Simon
the difference. Ten years later, Ehrlich sent Simon a check for
$576 -- all five metals had fallen in price.
Selected Ehrlich Quotes
"Actually, the problem in the world is that there is much
too many rich people..." - Quoted by the Associated Press,
April 6, 1990
"Giving society cheap, abundant energy would be the equivalent
of giving an idiot child a machine gun." - Quoted by R. Emmett
Tyrrell in The American Spectator, September 6, 1992
"We've already had too much economic growth in the United
States. Economic growth in rich countries like ours is the disease,
not the cure." - Quoted by Dixy Lee Ray in her book Trashing
the Planet (1990)
"The battle to feed humanity is over. In the 1970s, the world
will undergo famines. Hundreds of millions of people are going
to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon
now. Population control is the only answer." - Ehrlich in
his book, The Population Bomb (1968), predicting widespread famine
that never materialized
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Version Date: August 19, 1993
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